Today New City Initiative is comprised of 43 leading independent asset management firms from the UK and the Continent, managing approximately £500 billion and employing several thousand people.
Published by Charles Gubert
Clarity about the UK-EU future relationship may be provided later this year, a full seven months after Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon was invoked by PM Theresa May, which ratified the start of Brexit talks. It is hoped the EU will sign off on a transitional arrangement for the UK in December 2017, a milestone which would significantly reduce the risk of a sudden, hard Brexit.
A transitional agreement would allow impacted organisations such as fund managers, their staff and clients to accustom themselves gradually to the new UK-EU relationship, with limited disruption. A transitional agreement is fully supported by New City Initiative (NCI), as we believe it will provide essential stability in what could potentially be a highly uncertain process. The likelihood of a transitional arrangement may be assisted by the increasingly rational and pragmatic approach being taken by EU and UK negotiators, who realise that a traumatic Brexit could aggravate systemic risks and economic damage.
The key to any future UK-EU relationship has to be certainty. Even if the net outcome is poor, businesses need to know specifics in order to adapt. At present, there does not appear to be a tsunami of businesses moving operations into the EU. Many firms will probably retain a strong presence in the UK, while partially increasing their footprints on the continent. So far, financial services have not shifted operations into the EU at a pace or scale that many had envisaged following the referendum last year.
UBS, for example, publicly said the number of staff likely to relocate into the EU post-Brexit would be far lower than initially forecast. Some attributed this to the absence of flexible employment laws in parts of the EU jostling for business. This business commitment, however, should not be taken for granted, as an absence of a transitional agreement and a lack of substantive progress on trade talks could force organisations to execute Brexit contingency plans. This could seriously threaten and impede the UK’s competitive edge over the next few years.
The Risk of Domestic Change
There are other risks to UK businesses not emanating from the EU, but rather domestic forces. The decision to hold an election in June 2017 cost incumbent PM May her majority and there is a very real possibility of a change in government prior to Brexit talks concluding.
This would lead to serious disruption in the Brexit negotiation process, particularly if there was a material change in policies and priorities put forward by an incoming regime. This could result in delays to Brexit and further uncertainty at a critical point.
Domestic policies by any new government could also exacerbate business disruption. The opposition Labour Party, which many believe could win the next election, has made a number of statements – which if implemented - would seriously impact financial services. These have included calls for an introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) and mandatory nationalisation policies. The Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer also suggested capital controls could be implemented in the event of capital flight.
If such events transpired and domestic policies became hostile to free enterprise and financial services, there is a very real risk businesses that had once remained committed to the UK after Brexit may leave on their own volition, either for the EU, North America or APAC. Several industry experts have said that Brexit is manageable, but the spectre of FTT or capital controls unleashed by a government unreceptive to free markets could prompt a number of organisations to hoist business from the UK.
NCI is engaging with its members and external service providers about how they would react to the possible introduction of forced nationalisations, the imposition of capital controls and an FTT. This will form the basis of a research paper being produced over the course of the next few months looking at what these potential policies could mean for financial services and most importantly, its customers, and how the industry can best prepare themselves.